2009-06-17

Firsts

So after losing about 95% of my virtual portfolio's value (mostly due to Citigroup, haha), I've decided to stop horsing around, put some real money on the line, and invest in something relatively closer to home.

First $20K portfolio established with EnCana and two energy trusts in Calgary.
Commission fees: $117

Damn I hate CIBC.
Damn I need more time.

2009-06-16

FINALLY

Thanks for helping me with my chinese firewall problems, you lazy douches =P

KK i will try to blog as much possible.

2009-05-20

LOLOLOLOL
 
Apparently blogger.com is still not allowed behind China's firewall. Oh well, send me updates of your life through email! =P
 
In other news, I am in a shady ass internet cafe right now in Beijing. It is a surreal experience, the past 2 days. Oh well, it's a good learning experience all in all.
 
P.S. I won't be reading your comments for quite a while. So...keep that in mind when you post a comment.

2009-05-17

Respect for Actuaries: -1

"In the United States, the underwriting loss of property and casualty insurance companies was $142.3 billion in the five years ending 2003. But overall profit for the same period was $68.4 billion, as the result of float [investment capital gains]. Some insurance industry insiders, most notably Hank Greenberg, do not believe that it is forever possible to sustain a profit from float without an underwriting profit as well, but this opinion is not universally held [LOL, are you joking me?]. Naturally, the “float” method is difficult to carry out in an economically depressed period. Bear markets do cause insurers to shift away from investments and to toughen up their underwriting standards. So a poor economy generally means high insurance premiums. This tendency to swing between profitable and unprofitable periods over time is commonly known as the "underwriting" or insurance cycle.

Property and casualty insurers currently make the most money from their auto insurance line of business. Generally better statistics are available on auto losses and underwriting on this line of business has benefited greatly from advances in computing. Additionally, property losses in the United States, due to unpredictable natural catastrophes, have exacerbated this trend."

- source: Wikipedia
Some interesting questions:

What do you consider more morally wrong?
Jaywalking vs. Downloading a song?
Sharing your neighbour's cable hookup vs. uploading a TV show with ads removed?
Smoking marijuanna vs. Downloading MS Office?
Sneaking into a movie theatre vs. buying a movie from the black market?
Stealing a $1.00 chocolate bar vs. Downloading a $65 video game?

The question I found the most iffy was the last two. What do you guys think?

source: http://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/download-decade/if-piracy-is-wrong-whydoesitfeelsoright/article1136934/#interactive

2009-05-13

I am so unprepared for what's ahead of me.

Is this fear? The trappings of comfort? A relapse? My intrinsic deficiencies?

I can't explain this mental paralysis in me.

2009-05-07

In honour of Mayur's enlightened post, I too shall promise to write about my life in progress at some later, more convenient time.

2009-04-02

Finance, cont'd (an old post)

I finished this like a month ago, but never got around to finalizing the arguments and publishing it...lol, fail on timeliness.

So here's the rough draft, a reply to Lisa's post.

I do have to lament the fact that constructive arguments such as these quickly turn into deconstructionism of the other person's argument. I'm especially guilty...at first I was going to put down just my own thoughts. But the end was just purely a rebuttal of Lisa. For that...apologies.

However, since we're already in this deep hole, let's just keep digging, haha. Lisa, I do think you did my arguments relative justice. However, I do have a few beef to settle:

- Madness of Crowds, Monkey Business, Collapse of LTCM, Liar's Poker...yep, I've read them all. So I'm very well aware of excess greed on Wall Street.

I see how your attempted rebuttal as forced you into a corner with more extreme statements. This was not my intent with my original post, lol. But this means your arguments are easier break down, because you resort to using Straw Man arguments to rebutt. Let me elaborate:

1. "In my prev. entry, I have mistakenly identified "life and survival" as the sole goal of any society. Discovering new knowledge, for one, is an important value." - Yes, but no. What I argued was that you did implicitly acknowledge other values. But you primed (look that up) your arguments on only life and survival, and your judgements ended up being based on life and survival even when you acknowledge other values. And we'll see how you continue to make that mistake within this rebuttal. Yes, discovering knowledge is valuable, but that's also a simplification. What I argued is there is an intrinsically unknowable future that contain value to them, which is a broader set that contains discoverable knowledge. I used this to argue that it is inherently restricting to arbitrarily, individually, or even among small groups, to determine value to any set of action. My thoughts on this are very influenced by Karl Popper, a very good philosopher on the nature of knowledge. Highly recommend. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper

2. "It doesn't really matter if people don't make the connection between making money and production, so long as the money connects in proportion to value, money will do the invisible thinking. And since "empirical evidence seems to show that despite how stupid people are most of the time, collective action is better than elitist judgment, money DOES connect in proportion to value." - I've said that it doesn't do a good job often times, but yes, you've characterized my stance well on this one. However, your rebuttal is weak: resorting to example sniping? Come on...do you actually think I'm not aware of the constant slew of shit that happened over the past year or so? There are so many ways the examples you give were flawed and misleading, so I won't spend too much time rebuking each and every single one of them. Unless you can question my argument on the fundamental and theoretical basis, this is gonna turn into a very trite argument over the specifics of examples, very soon. Let's look at the article as 1 example: The Iceland article.

I must say Lisa, I was a little disappointed with your response with a Michael Lewis article. Granted, he is a great writer and an excellent storyteller. But the fact that you countered a deep discussion about the value of finance with an article mocking Icelanders for believing in elves is a bit disconcerting. Mischaracterizing Icelandic males as a bunch of hormone-enraged fishermen who didn't know a rat's ass about currency trading, with some feminism undertones to satisfy Vanity Fair, is absurd when you look at it in retrospect. Amusing? Definitely. Distracting of the issues? Yes.

Because what you are implying there is that with a complete dismantlement of the financial instruments industry, the world on whole end up a better place. Because I don't think even you believe that fully. What trading ultimately is involved in dynamic pricing. Regardless of how flawed the methods are, dynamic and fluid pricing is better than no pricing at all. Speculation is that ugly and greasy cog that makes that happen.

So my conclusion: the way I've structured the debate is that I've characterized Lisa's point of view as one which the finance industry adds NO value whatsoever to the world and we would probably be better off completely dismantling it. What I've characterized it is that although there are many things the finance industry can change upon, anecdotal evidence do not provide sufficient reasoning that trade and speculation cannot add value to society. Is this a bit straw man? No, because Lisa, you phrased your original thesis as a very rhetorical question, so I implied your point was that the finance industry adds little or no value to society. Unless..of course, your entire rant was to try to conclude that the finance industry's value is only overvalued by a bit, which I suspect it's not.

Do I realize how corrupt, how messed up, how fundamentally flawed the financial industry is? Yes; I don't think you don't have to look far to establish a good case there. Heck, the finance puppy is not the most ethically sound industry out there....I'm not gonna pretend ppl in there are out there to save puppies. Can you make a case that we can improve the regulatory structure of the financial industry, bring the shadow banking system to light, and tighten corporate governance to keep wealth distribution in check? Definitely, those are issues I do hope the Obama administration tackles eventually. However, what I took issue was the fundamental, philosophical, value behind the financial service, and the derived (not derivative) mechanisms that stem from that, as a periphery social function. I still think there is a place for finance, speculation, and money management within society. And this is why understanding, and engaging with finance, is really important to me - anybody can stand on a pedestal, look at circumstantial evidence, and throw shit at the other monkeys. But I think a better step is to work to reconcile extremes and constructively make the world a better place. Just a thought...

And with that, I hope we agree to disagree on this issue. :) I'll allow you a final wrap-up: I don't plan to write on this any more soon. I've been doing a lot more reading these days.

2009-03-31

Why I want to go into finance

So, this "debate" started when I was catching up with Lisa, and I discovered that she was very skeptical of the finance industry. It was a very good convos, and I think I personally learned a lot from the other side. Here are some of my key points from that, which I've reinforced a bit:

What is the meaning of life? Grand question perhaps, but I think it is necessary to establish this before we judge any societal function because if standards are inconsistent, judgements will be inconsistent. The idea put forth is that life and survival is where it starts. It's what apes were designed to do. It is what the rest of the animal kingdom was designed to do. Eat, survive, fuck, die. Hence, our work as a society is to achieve that end through collective means. Apes form family groups to hunt together and gather food together, so that each member can better feed themselves than if they were doing it alone. This efficiency of scale concept is quite intuitive to understand. Our economy, therefore, should promote activities so that our standard of living improve - in terms of shelter, food, etc.

However, when we look at the implications of this hypothesis, we see that it is quite incomplete, to say the least. It does not explain why the only industries we employ are the farming, housebuilding, and prostitution sector (basically, why Communism failed as a social institution) It does not explain the purpose of religion within societies. Or art. Point being, it is quite clear that societies work towards not only ensuring their members survive per se, but working towards creating value for its members: whether it is life (Aquafina), subsistence (KFC), aesthetic (Picasso), pleasure (Porn), spiritual (Scientology). I think creation of individual value is what societal organizations do try to achieve, and hence it's definitely a good criterion in judging societal organisms. Lisa should agree with me up to this point in principle...lol?

However, there are huge problems with applying this definition, which is why I find that is often abused in application. First of all, I've highlighted some of the possible sources of value, but that is certainly not an exhaustive list. Not only have I not included knowledge, I haven't even gotten started on metaphysical knowledge. Whether it is interpreting the past, or hypothesizing on the future, a crucial point I want to make is that value not only comes from things we know we know, but also from things we know we don't know, and even things we don't know we don't know. Sorry for pulling a Rumsfeld, but it's true. The latter thing is actually one of the most valuable things to us as a society - why do you think innovation and productivity are such important factors in economic growth? why do you think we pour billions in R&D even though theoretically, the probability of average success is an infinitesimally small, unknowable number? And don't dispute this one - the fact is, the probability of another Einstein, another groundbreaking theory, does not come in a quantifiable probability, every so number of years. This chaotic nature of human discovery has huge value, and is something none of us individually have the authority to quantify. The second problem with application, is that individuals have different preferences for different values. So what is valuable to one is complete garbage to another. Can we reconcile that with an economic system? Or should it be that if I find all asian pop complete aesthetic bullshit, I can then judge asian pop singers to be a waste of societal resources?

And this comes to the crux of my argument against Lisa's. Money does attempt to "measure value" as efficiently as possible. It's not very good, and yes, the link between money and "producing something valuable" is lost upon the minds of most people. The fact that I have to write this long on the philosophy of finance speaks to that fact, I think, that the overall nature of financial institutions is hard to conceptualize. But first all, I don't think it matters if people don't make that mental connection during every transaction. As long as the money connects in proportion to value, money will do the invisible thinking for humans.

So the issue of is whether money does connect in proportion to value. This is where I take issue. Lisa primed her judgement of value with the "life and survival" quote. It presupposes the value is only derived from survival of self. I'm pretty sure you agree with me when I say that is definitely not the only value we need to judge upon. Which is why individuals should not be making that judgement anyways. In case you object to the fact that an inanimate object is doing the thinking of us, when the judgment of value is collectivized, we reach a fair conclusion of value that takes into all of our own judgements, as well as values from sources that we might not have thought of yet, or might have undervalued. It is a democracy of knowledge and information, in essence. And empirical evidence seems to show that despite how stupid people are most of the time, collective action is better than elitist judgment.

So, let's take my standards and apply it to the finance industry, whom I know we all love. :) Now, I'm guessing we're gonna talk about proprietary trading and speculation, because that's what everyone likes to bitch about. And a little a bit about financial engineering? I'll leave out investment banking, fund management, and sales for simplicity. Ok let's say financial instruments are used exclusively for speculation rather than hedging, because everyone is greedy and risk-loving. Then on a theoretical basis, it is zero-sum to the parties involved. One person's gain is another's loss. They gain nothing on average because their risk preference is exactly the same. You can argue that it is a casino then, with no entertainment value to society. However, it is not. Back to my rumsfeld point: a casino involves discrete, knowable, probabilities. These people make money off of unknowable probabilities...of the future! However, by buying and selling these assets, they are unwillingly disclosing information to a broader system, one that benefits society greatly. In that regard, the value from speculation is the externality to society in terms of information - it provides insight into that dark abyss of unknowable knowledge. Why do you think the stock market is touted as a 7 month leading indicator of over economic activity? And because of options, now we can quantify society risk tolerance based on an options index - no more looking at historical data bullshit. In that case, a purely zero-sum game does have societal value: it is a hybrid between a gladatorial game and a van Gogh, a work of art. To the parties involved, it is you win/I lose. To us though, it provides amazing insights into what we as a society are about. And we can throw rocks at them too when we hate them. And just as well known artists are compensated well for their brilliant/mediocre creations, I think financial engineers should be too.

So in conclusion, does the financial industry add much to the world? In real terms, no, it doesn't. In other words, Shakespeare is just your average bullshit playwright. Picasso is just some random ADHD doodler. Van Gogh is just your 18th century emo motherfucker. And your university is definitely not worth all the hype and research money dumped in its puzzling endeavours. But I think when we value human contribution is such simplistic terms, when we don't quantify future, unknowable benefits; when we stress upon current, deterministic, discountable, tangible benefits, we risk making our own minds a bit more asinine.

Yes, physics and biology and stats are all interesting, but you're assuming everyone has the same preference to each field based on challenge. The fact is, finance involves larger risk, and larger payoffs. And it is a field where you always have to question the value of your contributions, instead of taking it for granted. I realize everyone is different, but this is something that I prefer, and I'm fine if noone else is. Feelings are not something I can trust.

Regards.

20 Things


I wrote this a while back when this was still a fad. Did not feel like posting it on facebook. Enjoy.

20 Things about Steven
  1. I am truly embarrassed I’m actually following this fad.
  2. That being said, I do enjoy anything random. There’s always a strange beauty, I find, in chaos. So hopefully, these articles follow that format.
  3. So far, university life feels like juggling grenades. It looks and feels spectacular, until you blow yourself up. But that’s why it’s fun. 
  4. I have an affinity (but not a knack) for wry humour. Sadly, this humour is not in vogue. Hence, cheekiness has gotten me in quagmires quite a few times.
  5. For the life of me, I cannot stand caramel, but I can eat chocolate with nuts all day. Suck on that, allergenic people.
  6. I cannot figure out the taste value of raw fish. Nor cannot I figure out the premium associated in inefficiently wrapping cold rice in a cylindrical shape. In summary: sushi is overrated.
  7. This is taking a long time to write. That probably means I’m starting to think too much.
  8. I’m a stickler for proper punctuation. Periods ftw.
  9. I have probably the worst sleep diligence amongst all of you.
  10. My policy on drugs and consumerism is, if I’m going to waste my life away on useless shit, the least I require is that I waste it on classy useless shit – wine, cigar, and a Hugo Boss jacket, that’s the way to go. Thank god I’m broke as fuck right now.
  11. That being said, music is probably my hugest addiction right now. I cannot think about anything without something blasting in my ear. As well, individuality (aka eccentricity) is pretty important to me, so if you start liking too many songs I like, I get annoyed.
  12. If I despise you, it’s probably because I really respect you. What does that imply?
  13. Minimalism is the spice of life. I love to savour the lack of details.
  14. I have a lot of old clothes that are just plain ugly and too small. Sadly, I’m also Asian: hence, I don’t feel conscientious enough to give my sweatshop, 5-cent-made, swag t-shirts, to drug addict hobos freezing on the streets of Toronto. Sadly, I’m probably doing all parties a favour. Go figure.
  15. I am a huge Bose fanboy, which probably means my brains will eventually be turned into mush through the constant barrage of sound waves.
  16. My black belt still has not proved useful so far in my life. I guess this means I’m too much of a pussy? Should start some bar fights.
  17. I subconsciously fear heights; I fall off airplanes all the time in my nightmares. Rollercoasters and mountain-climbing have been fine, though. Try skydiving soon?
  18. Places to visit before rotting away in a dirt mound: Pakistan, UAE, Morocco, Italy, Venezuela, Australia, Kenya
  19. I sometimes know exactly what type of person I am. Other times, I would have no clue. That happened somewhere between 10 and 18. Yes, I just made that shit up.
  20. I relish in and enjoy accepting the ironies in life. This has gotten me into some awkward situations as well.
  21. I firmly believe that the most truly happy and successful people in life are optimistic cynics.
  22. That’s a lie: I don’t believe in the concept of believing. There's something to be said about being an anal empiricist when everyone is talking about touchy-feely things.
  23. I love any art, in any medium, that makes no sense. 
  24. I probably should have some thoughts on true love too, to wrap up this list. But 22) limits the amount of material I can speak on the subject.
  25. Yes, I realize I’m only supposed to have 20. You can stop being smug now.
Reply to finance article coming up.